35% — What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $77-$84
Leader: $70-$77 at 35% · Polymarket 35% · 5 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 14:38:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Traders are pricing a 65% probability that West Texas Intermediate crude will settle between $77–$84 per barrel by the end of June 2026. This forecast sits near current spot levels and reflects uncertainty about near-term demand, geopolitical supply shocks, and Federal Reserve policy. The market shows low conviction for extreme moves: contracts betting on oil hitting $200, $175, or $150 trade at only 4–12 cents, while a bet on prices staying above $80 commands 50 cents. Upward pressure would likely come from production disruptions or unexpected demand strength in Asia; downward pressure from recession signals or a sharp rise in U.S. inventory. Key drivers include OPEC production cuts, U.S. inventory data releases each week, and macroeconomic indicators through June.

Key factors:
- OPEC+ compliance with production quotas and any announced supply adjustments; current cuts average ~2 million barrels per day
- Weekly U.S. EIA crude inventory reports and refineryutilization rates, released each Wednesday, which directly signal domestic demand
- Current WTI spot price approximately $75–78 (as of early May 2026) relative to the $77–84 range; mean reversion or momentum would shift probabilities
- Geopolitical events or sanctions affecting major producers (Russia, Iran, Iraq) that could constrain global supply unexpectedly
- Macroeconomic data (PMI, GDP growth forecasts, Fed rate guidance) that influence expectations for fuel consumption through Q2 2026

Contracts:
- What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $70-$77 — 35¢ Polymarket $553 (weight 20%)
- What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $77-$84 — 27¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 68%)
- What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: >$84 — 18¢ Polymarket $289 (weight 10%)
- What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $63-$70 — 12¢ Polymarket $34 (weight 1%)
- What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $56-$63 — 3¢ Polymarket $18 (weight 1%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-crude-oil-cl-settle-june
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Crude%20Oil%20(CL)%20settle%20at%20in%20June%3F%3A%20%2477-%2484
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev