16% — What will the Ethereum implied volatility Index hit by April 30?: ↓ 60
Polymarket 16% · 18 contracts · $94K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:08:06 UTC

Why this matters:
This prediction asks whether Ethereum's implied volatility index will fall below 60 by April 30, 2026—a measure of expected price swings in the market. The current 21% probability reflects skepticism that volatility will compress to that level within the remaining timeframe. The primary drivers are Ethereum's price trajectory and broader market conditions: sustained price stability would reduce implied volatility, while sharp moves or uncertainty would maintain elevated levels. The resolution depends on actual volatility measurements from major derivatives exchanges as we approach the deadline. Key factors include current macro conditions, regulatory developments affecting crypto markets, and Ethereum's correlation with broader financial asset volatility.

Key factors:
- Current Ethereum implied volatility levels and trend direction relative to the 60 threshold
- Concentration of price predictions between $800–$1,500 versus upside bets at $4,000+, indicating mixed directional conviction
- Volume and activity patterns in Ethereum derivatives markets, which directly influence implied volatility calculations
- Macroeconomic and interest-rate environment shifts, historically correlated with crypto asset volatility
- Regulatory announcements or protocol developments that could trigger rapid repricing or uncertainty spikes

Contracts:
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 800 — 14¢ Polymarket $40K (weight 43%)
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000 — 21¢ Polymarket $28K (weight 30%)
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500 — 84¢ Polymarket $17K (weight 19%)
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500 — 7¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 3%)
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 3,500 — 14¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 2%)
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,000 — 8¢ Polymarket $953 (weight 1%)
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 4,000 — 10¢ Polymarket $949 (weight 1%)
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 4,500 — 9¢ Polymarket $762 (weight 1%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:13.704Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-ethereum-implied-volatility-index-hit-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20the%20Ethereum%20implied%20volatility%20Index%20hit%20by%20April%2030%3F%3A%20%E2%86%93%2060
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev