37% — What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0% Leader: 3.75% at 37% · Polymarket 37% · 5 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-24 10:35:21 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This market assigns a 54% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 4.0% through the end of 2026. The probability reflects expectations about inflation trends, economic growth, and Fed policy communications over the next seven months. Markets currently price in a June rate hold as highly likely (94% probability), with only a 46% chance of any cuts occurring before 2027. The main drivers of this probability are incoming inflation data and employment reports, which will shape Fed decisions at each meeting. The immediate catalyst is the June 2026 FOMC meeting, where markets overwhelmingly expect no change. Subsequent quarterly inflation readings and labor market indicators through year-end will determine whether the Fed adjusts from the 4.0% level. Key factors: - June 2026 FOMC meeting is priced at 94% probability of rate maintenance, establishing the baseline for year-end outcomes - Inflation trajectory matters significantly—any sustained above-target inflation would support rates staying at 4.0% rather than declining - The 46% market probability of any cuts before 2027 suggests most participants expect rates to hold steady through the end of 2026 - Only 13% probability assigned to cuts exceeding 25bps in 2026, indicating markets do not expect aggressive rate-cutting cycles - Economic data releases between now and December—particularly CPI, PCE, and employment reports—will be the primary drivers of probability shifts Contracts: - What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 3.75% — 37¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 19%) - What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0% — 35¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 16%) - What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25% — 13¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 34%) - What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 3.5% — 8¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 17%) - What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: ≥ 4.5% — 4¢ Polymarket $917 (weight 15%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-fed-rate Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20the%20Fed%20rate%20be%20at%20the%20end%20of%202026%3F%3A%204.0%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev