21% — What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $15,000 Leader: ↑ $6,000 at 21% · Polymarket 21% · 6 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:11 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract reflects a 31% market probability that gold will exceed $15,000 per troy ounce by December 31, 2026. Gold is currently trading near $2,400, meaning the contract requires approximately a 525% gain in seven months. The probability is driven by expectations around US monetary policy, inflation trajectories, and geopolitical risk premiums. Near-term catalysts include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation reports, and developments in international conflicts that historically support gold demand. Liquidity in the June contracts suggests traders are pricing near-term consolidation, with the $4,300 downside contract trading at 30¢—indicating material concern about price pullback. The wide gap between current price and the $15,000 strike means this contract is pricing a significant macroeconomic shock or policy shift rather than normal market evolution. Key factors: - Gold would need to appreciate approximately 525% from current levels (~$2,400) to reach $15,000, a move unprecedented in modern commodity markets - US interest rate policy and real yields are the primary driver—sustained rate cuts would reduce opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold - Geopolitical instability and central bank accumulation have supported gold demand; escalation of existing conflicts or new crises would increase probability - The June contracts trade at 3-5¢, suggesting market participants assign minimal probability to explosive near-term moves, with downside hedging (30¢ on the $4,300 put) indicating defined risk below current levels - Historical gold volatility and technical resistance levels suggest $15,000 would require a regime shift in inflation expectations, currency valuations, or systemic financial stress Contracts: - What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $6,000 — 21¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 71%) - What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $7,000 — 9¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 25%) - What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $8,000 — 6¢ Polymarket $350 (weight 5%) - What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $12,000 — 5¢ Polymarket $3 (weight 0%) - What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $15,000 — 4¢ Polymarket $4 (weight 0%) - What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $10,000 — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:10.625Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-gold-gc-hit-december Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Gold%20(GC)%20hit__%20by%20end%20of%20December%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%20%2415%2C000 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev