93% — What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in April 2026?: ↑ $4,900
Leader: ↓ $4,300 at 93% · Polymarket 93% · 7 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 08:45:26 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Contracts:
- What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $4,300 — 93¢ Polymarket $689 (weight 7%)
- What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $4,200 — 49¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 13%)
- What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $6,000 — 21¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 57%)
- What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $3,800 — 6¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 18%)
- What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $8,000 — 6¢ Polymarket $350 (weight 4%)
- What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $4,900 — 4¢ Polymarket $7 (weight 0%)
- What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $15,000 — 4¢ Polymarket $4 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T08:20:07.810Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-gold-xauusd-hit-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Gold%20(XAUUSD)%20hit%20in%20April%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%20%244%2C900
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev