24% — What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31
Leader: Oil Sanction Relief at 24% · Polymarket 24% · 2 contracts · $151K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 19:59:44 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates the likelihood that Trump will concede to at least one Iranian demand by May 31, 2026—just six days away. The 25% probability reflects divided sentiment across four possible outcomes, with unfreezing assets viewed as the most probable demand Trump might accept. The near-term timeframe and narrow window for negotiation suggest market participants view a deal as unlikely but non-trivial. The outcome depends on whether active U.S.-Iran talks are occurring and whether Trump prioritizes sanctions relief or asset access as negotiating leverage in the final week of May. The resolution will occur automatically when the deadline passes, making this a pure binary-like contract on near-term diplomatic movement.

Key factors:
- No public announcement of active Trump-Iran negotiations has been reported as of late May 2026, suggesting low baseline probability for agreement in six days
- The contract's structure shows unfreezing assets (26¢) and oil sanctions relief (24¢) are favored over uranium enrichment rights (3¢) and strait transit fees (3¢), indicating market expectation that financial/economic demands are more negotiable than security concessions
- Trump's historical negotiating pattern and current relationship with Iran would need to shift dramatically within one week to produce an agreement
- The spread between the top two outcomes (26¢ to 24¢) indicates near-parity, suggesting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that a deal is impossible
- Any Iranian demand concession would likely require either a crisis event forcing negotiation or pre-existing back-channel talks not yet public

Contracts:
- What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?: Oil Sanction Relief — 24¢ Polymarket $85K (weight 56%)
- What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?: Unfreeze Iranian Assets — 16¢ Polymarket $66K (weight 44%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T19:20:08.419Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-iranian-demands-trump-agree-to-may-31
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20Iranian%20demands%20will%20Trump%20agree%20to%20by%20May%2031
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev