22% — What will iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in April 2026?: ↓ $118
Kalshi 22% · 5 contracts · $278 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:41:35 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) will close below $118 at any point in April 2026. The 23% probability reflects relatively low odds of such a decline from recent trading levels. South Korea's equity market is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate expectations, corporate earnings growth, and geopolitical tensions on the peninsula. The contract's current valuation suggests traders expect the Korean won and associated equities to remain relatively stable through April 2026. Key drivers of movement include domestic monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Korea, quarterly earnings reports from major holdings like Samsung and SK Hynix, and any shifts in U.S.-Korea trade relations or North Korean developments. The most concrete resolution point occurs at the end of April 2026, when the contract settles based on the ETF's intraday low during that month.

Key factors:
- EWY's historical volatility relative to its current price level, which determines the statistical likelihood of reaching $118
- Bank of Korea interest rate decisions and inflation data between now and April 2026, which directly influence Korean asset valuations
- Earnings performance and forward guidance from EWY's largest weighted holdings during Q1 2026
- Currency movements of the Korean won versus the U.S. dollar, since the ETF's price reflects both equity values and exchange rate fluctuations
- Geopolitical events or policy announcements affecting U.S.-Korea relations, semiconductor trade, or North Korean developments

Contracts:
- Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?: Ending Jun 4, 2029 — 74¢ Kalshi $264 (weight 95%)
- What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary?: South Carolina — 28¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 5%)
- What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: South Carolina — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea before Jan 1, 2027?: Lee Jae Myung — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will recognize Palestine?: South Korea — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.203Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-ishares-msci-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20iShares%20MSCI%20South%20Korea%20ETF%20(EWY)%20hit%20in%20April%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%93%20%24118
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev