10% — What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 30?: >439k
Kalshi 10% · 2 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 19:40:24 UTC

Why this matters:
This prediction asks whether Austin's median home value will exceed $439,000 by April 2027, with current betting odds at 28% likelihood. The relatively low probability suggests market participants expect Austin home values to remain below or near that threshold over the next ten months. Austin's housing market has experienced significant volatility following rapid pandemic-era appreciation. Key factors influencing this outcome include broader economic conditions affecting home prices, Austin's specific supply-demand dynamics, mortgage rate trends, and regional employment conditions. The main resolution point will be Zillow's official home value data for April 2027, though interim housing reports and economic indicators throughout late 2026 and early 2027 will provide signals about the trajectory. Market participants are essentially betting that Austin prices will either stagnate, decline modestly, or grow more slowly than needed to reach this threshold.

Key factors:
- Zillow's official median home value index for Austin metro area in April 2027 must exceed $439,000 to resolve affirmatively
- Current Austin median home values and their YoY trend from mid-2026 through early 2027 will directly indicate likelihood
- Mortgage rate movements and financing availability between now and April 2027 significantly influence buyer demand and price support
- Employment growth or contraction in Austin's major sectors (technology, healthcare, energy) affects migration patterns and housing demand
- Broader economic indicators including consumer confidence, recession probability, and regional economic growth create tailwinds or headwinds for appreciation

Contracts:
- Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?: Yes — 16¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 100%)
- What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Virginia — 3¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-28T19:20:49.132Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-median-home-value-austin-texas-metro-area-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20the%20median%20home%20value%20in%20the%20Austin%2C%20Texas%20Metro%20area%20be%20on%20April%2030%3F%3A%20%3E439k
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev