68% — What will the median home value in New York City be on April 30?: 596 - 603k Kalshi 82% · Polymarket 39% · 9 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-13 12:07:46 UTC Cross-venue gap: 43pp (Kalshi higher) Why this matters: The 63% probability reflects market expectations that New York City's median home value will fall between $596k and $603k by April 30, 2027. This forecast sits between two divergent assessments: Kalshi traders assign 71% probability, while Polymarket traders assess only 44%, a 27-percentage-point gap suggesting genuine disagreement about NYC housing resilience. The estimate depends primarily on two factors: whether national economic conditions support continued price stability or trigger meaningful declines (unemployment, equity selloffs, or housing weakness), and how NYC specifically performs relative to national trends during what has historically been a period of elevated rates and affordability pressures. The June 17 Federal Reserve meeting and subsequent economic data releases through early 2027 will provide critical signals about monetary policy direction and economic momentum, either supporting the current range or pushing toward more pronounced weakness in high-cost markets like NYC. Key factors: - Median NYC home value at baseline (Jan 2026) relative to $596-603k range: whether current levels sit above, within, or below this band determines directional bias - National unemployment rate trajectory and Fed policy path: contractionary conditions (unemployment above 5%, continued rate pressure) would pressure prices downward; stable labor markets support the range - Relative performance of NYC vs. national housing indices: NYC has historically shown higher resilience during downturns but also more sensitivity to rate shocks given affordability constraints - Cross-venue probability gap (71% Kalshi vs 44% Polymarket): reflects either different base-rate assumptions about NYC stability or different weighting of recession probability through April 2027 - April 30, 2027 timing: covers critical winter/spring season when seasonal factors and Q1 2027 economic data will clarify growth and inflation trajectory Contracts: - Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?: Yes — 29¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 36%) - What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000 — 27¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 28%) - What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500 — 7¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 21%) - What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.5% — 82¢ Kalshi $603 (weight 8%) - What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.4% — 93¢ Kalshi $342 (weight 5%) - What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500 — 84¢ Polymarket $150 (weight 2%) - What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.0% — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.2% — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-13T11:20:49.464Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "68% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-median-home-value-new-york-city-april-30 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20the%20median%20home%20value%20in%20New%20York%20City%20be%20on%20April%2030%3F%3A%20596%20-%20603k Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev