40% — What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 30?: >1.262m
Polymarket 26% · Kalshi 62% · 14 contracts · $19K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 15:06:22 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 36pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000 — 19¢ Polymarket $7K (weight 14%)
- What will be the series outcome in the Toronto vs Cleveland 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs?: TOR wins 4-3 — 27¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 13%)
- What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Virginia — 60¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 12%)
- What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Dividend — 32¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 12%)
- What will be the series outcome in the Toronto vs Cleveland 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs?: CLE wins 4-3 — 73¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 11%)
- Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?: Yes — 23¢ Kalshi $649 (weight 10%)
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500 — 48¢ Polymarket $360 (weight 9%)
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500 — 10¢ Polymarket $100 (weight 7%)
- ... and 6 more

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-median-home-value-san-francisco-metro-area-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20the%20median%20home%20value%20in%20the%20San%20Francisco%20Metro%20area%20be%20on%20April%2030%3F%3A%20%3E1.262m
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev