10% — What will the median home value in the US be on April 30?: >441k
Kalshi 10% · 2 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 19:39:40 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 28% probability that US median home values will exceed $441,000 by April 30, 2027. The prediction reflects uncertainty about housing market dynamics over the next ten months. Home prices depend primarily on mortgage rates, inventory levels, and demand patterns. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates significantly or housing supply remains constrained, prices could push higher. Conversely, if unemployment rises sharply or consumer confidence erodes, demand may weaken and prices could stagnate or decline. The most immediate catalyst will be monthly mortgage rate movements and quarterly housing data releases through early 2027, particularly existing home sales figures and new construction starts that signal market direction. Regional variations—especially in the major metros specified in the contract terms—will also influence aggregate median values.

Key factors:
- Current US median home price as of June 2026 and historical appreciation rates relative to the $441k threshold
- Monthly mortgage rate trends and Federal Reserve policy signals through April 2027
- Quarterly housing inventory levels and new home construction starts across major metropolitan areas
- Unemployment rate movements and consumer credit conditions that affect buyer demand
- Year-over-year home price changes in NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, and Phoenix as specified contract triggers

Contracts:
- Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?: Yes — 16¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 100%)
- What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Virginia — 3¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-28T19:20:49.549Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-median-home-value-us-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20the%20median%20home%20value%20in%20the%20US%20be%20on%20April%2030%3F%3A%20%3E441k
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev