23% — What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at in December?: $30,500-$33,000
Kalshi 26% · Polymarket 20% · 8 contracts · $20K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:15 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 6pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000 — 19¢ Polymarket $16K (weight 80%)
- What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 100 — 33¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 8%)
- What price will Zcash hit in 2026?: ↓ 100 — 25¢ Polymarket $980 (weight 5%)
- What will the price of GTA VI be?: More than $100 — 4¢ Kalshi $669 (weight 3%)
- Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 33,000.01 or above — 23¢ Kalshi $522 (weight 3%)
- What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?: $100-$115 — 3¢ Polymarket $241 (weight 1%)
- Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 25249.85 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 25,249.86 or above — 75¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%)
- Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28500 and 28999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 28,500 to 28,999.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.880Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-nasdaq-100-ndx-close-december
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Nasdaq%20100%20(NDX)%20close%20at%20in%20December%3F%3A%20%2430%2C500-%2433%2C000
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev