83% — What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit by end of December?: ↓ $21,000 Leader: ↓ 1,500 at 83% · Polymarket 83% · 17 contracts · $137K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:11 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 27% chance the Nasdaq 100 index will fall below $21,000 by December 31, 2026. The probability reflects current market positioning and recent volatility, with the index trading significantly above this threshold as of May 2026. The main drivers of this prediction are macroeconomic conditions—particularly Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, and corporate earnings growth—which determine whether large-cap tech and growth stocks maintain their valuations or face a substantial correction. The most significant catalyst will be the quarterly earnings reports throughout 2026 and any major shifts in interest rate expectations, which directly influence discount rates for high-growth companies that dominate the Nasdaq 100. Economic data releases, especially employment reports and inflation indicators, will provide critical signals about recession risk and monetary policy direction. Resolution depends entirely on where the index closes on December 31, 2026. Key factors: - Federal Reserve interest rate policy and forward guidance; markets price in expectations of rate cuts or hikes that materially affect equity valuations - Aggregate earnings growth for Nasdaq 100 components; earnings revisions upward or downward substantially move index valuations - Recession probability; historical data shows the Nasdaq 100 typically declines 20-40% during U.S. recessions - Geopolitical or systemic financial events between now and year-end that could trigger broad risk-off sentiment - Valuations relative to historical averages; current price-to-earnings ratios relative to long-term trends influence downside risk assessment Contracts: - What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500 — 83¢ Polymarket $11K (weight 8%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000 — 71¢ Polymarket $40K (weight 29%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000 — 56¢ Polymarket $15K (weight 11%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000 — 41¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 10%) - What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 100 — 33¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 1%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000 — 31¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 10%) - What price will Zcash hit in 2026?: ↓ 100 — 25¢ Polymarket $980 (weight 1%) - What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000 — 21¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 3%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.850Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-nasdaq-100-ndx-hit-december Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Nasdaq%20100%20(NDX)%20hit%20by%20end%20of%20December%3F%3A%20%E2%86%93%20%2421%2C000 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev