28% — What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in April 2026?: ↑ $3.00 Polymarket 28% · 17 contracts · $50K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-13 12:04:10 UTC Why this matters: Natural gas prices have a 26% probability of reaching $3.00 or higher in April 2026, based on aggregated market forecasts. This reflects traders' expectations that prices will remain below this level during that month. Natural gas prices are primarily driven by seasonal demand patterns (heating in winter months creates upward pressure, while summer typically sees lower demand) and supply dynamics, including production levels and storage capacity. The key driver would be April's actual weather conditions and inventory data leading into the month—unseasonably cold temperatures could boost demand and push prices higher, while mild weather would exert downward pressure. Traders are currently pricing in a below-30% chance of this threshold being met, suggesting market consensus expects either sustained lower prices or typical spring seasonality. Key factors: - April is historically a shoulder season with declining heating demand compared to winter months, creating seasonal headwinds for price appreciation - Current natural gas storage levels relative to the five-year average will influence supply tightness and price floor expectations - Historical volatility in natural gas prices (often 30-50% swings month-to-month) means the $3.00 threshold represents roughly 40-60% above recent price levels - Weather forecasts and temperature anomalies in March-April are the primary short-term catalyst for intramonth price movement - Production growth or constraints from major producing regions (Permian, Haynesville) directly affect supply available during the resolution period Contracts: - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000 — 42¢ Polymarket $15K (weight 30%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000 — 27¢ Polymarket $10K (weight 21%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000 — 6¢ Polymarket $6K (weight 13%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000 — 55¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 10%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000 — 31¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 6%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000 — 70¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 5%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000 — 21¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 4%) - What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000 — 27¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 4%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-13T11:20:49.618Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-natural-gas-ng-hit-april Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Natural%20Gas%20(NG)%20hit%20in%20April%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%20%243.00 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev