31% — What will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $80
Leader: ↓ $85 at 31% · Polymarket 31% · 2 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:42:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market measures the probability that Netflix's stock will trade at or below $80 at some point during May 2026. Currently priced at 36%, the contract reflects moderate skepticism that the stock will decline to this level, with traders appearing more confident in a floor near $85 or upside movement toward $95–$100. The probability is shaped by Netflix's recent stock performance, broader market conditions, and investor sentiment around the company's growth trajectory. Key drivers include quarterly earnings reports, subscriber growth announcements, and macroeconomic factors affecting tech valuations. Since we are already in mid-May 2026, the contract's resolution depends on whether the stock reaches $80 before the month closes, making any significant market movements or company news in the coming days highly relevant to the outcome.

Key factors:
- Netflix's current stock price relative to $80 and proximity to month-end; any intraday moves below $80 would resolve the contract
- Timing of any May earnings call, guidance revision, or subscriber data announcement that could trigger volatility
- Broader tech sector performance and market appetite for mega-cap growth stocks during the final weeks of May
- Historical volatility of NFLX and the distance between current price and the $80 strike level
- Competitive or regulatory developments (content spend, password-sharing enforcement, ad-tier growth) that move sentiment

Contracts:
- What will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $85 — 31¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 97%)
- What will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $95 — 4¢ Polymarket $123 (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.855Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-netflix-inc-nflx-hit-may
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Netflix%2C%20Inc.%20(NFLX)%20hit%20in%20May%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%93%20%2480
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev