3% — What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $240
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:43:56 UTC

Why this matters:
This market is asking whether NVIDIA's stock price will reach $240 or higher at some point in May 2026. Currently trading at 41%, the probability reflects uncertainty about near-term semiconductor demand, earnings momentum, and macroeconomic conditions. The gap between the leading outcome ($240) and runner-up ($248) suggests modest disagreement on upside potential—traders are pricing in meaningful uncertainty about whether the stock reaches even moderate gains from current levels. Downside risk to $192 is priced at 20%, indicating some hedging against a broader market correction or tech sector slowdown. The most significant driver would be NVIDIA's first-quarter earnings report and forward guidance in late April/early May 2026, which typically moves AI and semiconductor stocks substantially. Secondary factors include broader semiconductor industry trends, competition dynamics, and macro sentiment shifts.

Key factors:
- NVIDIA's Q1 2026 earnings release and data center guidance could shift probabilities sharply based on AI demand signals and margin expectations
- The $240 target represents roughly 8-12% upside from typical late-May price ranges, suggesting markets are pricing moderate conviction about continued strength
- Polymarket volume concentration ($7,389 in 24h for $240 contract) indicates active trading but relatively modest liquidity compared to major exchanges
- The downside contract at $192 (20% probability) reflects tail risk pricing—a 20%+ drawdown scenario—suggesting some traders are hedging against semiconductor cyclicality or broader tech correction
- Market structure with 7 discrete outcomes creates winner-take-all dynamics, potentially exaggerating probabilities for mid-range strikes while compressing tails

Contracts:
- What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $192 — 3¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T17:20:13.347Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-nvidia-nvda-hit-may
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20NVIDIA%20(NVDA)%20hit%20in%20May%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%20%24240
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev