61% — What will OpenAI's public ticker be?: $OAI
Leader: $OAI at 61% · Polymarket 61% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 09:34:09 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 61% probability that OpenAI will trade publicly under the ticker symbol $OAI if the company chooses to go public. The strong positioning of $OAI reflects its alignment with the company's abbreviation and historical precedent for tech companies using short, recognizable tickers. The probability remains uncertain because OpenAI has not announced formal IPO plans, timing is unconfirmed, and regulatory or strategic factors could lead to an alternative ticker. The main drivers are OpenAI's publicly stated interest in exploring public markets, CEO statements about potential timelines, and typical SEC ticker allocation practices. Resolution depends on OpenAI filing an S-1 registration statement and receiving ticker approval from SEC and FINRA, which would provide definitive confirmation. Until then, the market reflects educated speculation based on naming conventions and limited official guidance.

Key factors:
- OpenAI has not filed an S-1 registration statement or announced a formal IPO date as of June 2026
- SEC and FINRA must formally approve the chosen ticker symbol; OpenAI cannot unilaterally select $OAI
- Alternative tickers ($OPAI, $LLM, $OA) collectively trade at 24¢, indicating meaningful uncertainty about which symbol will be selected
- Historical precedent shows tech companies sometimes receive non-obvious tickers due to availability, regulatory conflicts, or strategic preference (e.g., Nvidia trades as $NVDA, not $NV)
- No scheduled catalyst or filing deadline has been publicly announced that would resolve this question in the near term

Contracts:
- What will OpenAI's public ticker be?: $OAI — 61¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 20%)
- What will OpenAI's public ticker be?: $OPAI — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 20%)
- What will OpenAI's public ticker be?: $LLM — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 20%)
- What will OpenAI's public ticker be?: $OA — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 20%)
- What will OpenAI's public ticker be?: $AAGI — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "61% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-openais-public-ticker
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20OpenAI's%20public%20ticker%20be%3F%3A%20%24OAI
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev