12% — What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $126
Leader: ↑ $150 at 12% · Polymarket 12% · 3 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:38:56 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Palantir's stock will decline to $126 or below during May 2026. At 48%, the outcome is viewed as the most likely among several downside and upside scenarios. The high trading volume ($23k in 24 hours) indicates active uncertainty around the stock's near-term direction. Downside bets dominate the contract set, with three of five outcomes positioned below current levels, suggesting traders weight negative momentum or profit-taking. The runner-up contract at 22% assumes an even steeper decline to $120, while bullish scenarios above $150 total only 23% combined. Key drivers include Palantir's earnings performance, macroeconomic sentiment affecting growth-oriented tech stocks, and broader market volatility. The outcome resolves at month-end, making company announcements, economic data, or significant geopolitical developments the primary catalysts that could shift probabilities substantially before expiration.

Key factors:
- Downside contracts account for 74% of aggregate probability, indicating sustained bearish positioning relative to upside scenarios
- Trading volume is concentrated in the $126 contract ($23k 24h), suggesting this threshold represents a material price level traders view as probable
- High-probability downside outcomes ($108–$126) collectively represent 52%, versus only 23% for upside moves above $150, indicating asymmetric risk perception
- The $20 spread between the leading outcome ($126) and runner-up ($120) creates marginal conviction, leaving room for repricing if company fundamentals or macro conditions shift
- May expiration provides limited time for resolution; contract pricing reflects expected moves within a compressed timeframe rather than longer-term trend expectations

Contracts:
- What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $150 — 12¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 38%)
- What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $126 — 7¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 49%)
- What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $120 — 3¢ Polymarket $493 (weight 13%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.320Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-palantir-technologies-inc-pltr-hit-may
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Palantir%20Technologies%20Inc.%20(PLTR)%20hit%20in%20May%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%93%20%24126
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev