71% — What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 120,000
Leader: ↓ 55,000 at 71% · Polymarket 71% · 15 contracts · $187K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets currently assign an 95% probability that Bitcoin will trade above $80,000 by year-end 2026, with smaller probabilities allocated to higher price targets ($120,000 and $200,000) and lower thresholds. This reflects trader expectations of continued appreciation from current levels. The assessment depends heavily on macroeconomic conditions—particularly US monetary policy, inflation trajectories, and institutional adoption rates—which would shift probabilities if interest rates, regulatory clarity, or institutional inflows change materially. The runner-up contract at 49% suggests meaningful disagreement about intermediate price levels. Trading volume concentrates in downside protection ($45,000 and $50,000 thresholds), indicating hedging demand. Resolution occurs at year-end 2026, leaving approximately seven months for spot price discovery and event-driven volatility to move probabilities.

Key factors:
- Current Bitcoin spot price relative to the $80,000 threshold and trajectory of recent price action
- US Federal Reserve policy path and inflation data releases through December 2026, which affect risk-on appetite
- Regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency market access, custody, or institutional participation
- Trading volume and open interest trends in Bitcoin futures and spot markets, indicating conviction levels
- Macroeconomic recession probability and correlation shifts between Bitcoin and traditional financial assets

Contracts:
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000 — 71¢ Polymarket $40K (weight 21%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000 — 56¢ Polymarket $15K (weight 8%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000 — 41¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 8%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000 — 31¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 7%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000 — 27¢ Polymarket $34K (weight 18%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000 — 21¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 2%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000 — 19¢ Polymarket $16K (weight 9%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 30,000 — 15¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 1%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.313Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "71% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-price-bitcoin-hit
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20price%20will%20Bitcoin%20hit%20in%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%20120%2C000
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev