71% — What price will Chainlink hit in April?: ↑ 12 Leader: ↓ 1,500 at 71% · Polymarket 71% · 18 contracts · $37K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-17 19:14:33 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability represents traders' collective assessment that Chainlink will reach a specific price point in April 2026. At 73%, the market is pricing in a relatively high likelihood of this outcome occurring within the timeframe. The current reading reflects recent upward momentum (up 12 points), suggesting increased confidence among participants. Key drivers include Chainlink's broader adoption trajectory in decentralized finance, near-term cryptocurrency market conditions, and macroeconomic factors affecting digital asset valuations. The resolution date in April 2026 creates a defined window for price discovery. Major shifts would likely follow significant announcements regarding Chainlink partnerships, broader Bitcoin or Ethereum price movements (given their correlation dynamics), or changes in regulatory sentiment toward blockchain infrastructure. Current trading volume concentration in Bitcoin price contracts indicates broader market focus may constrain Chainlink-specific attention and liquidity. Key factors: - Chainlink's price correlation with Bitcoin and Ethereum movements, given their market-leadership positions and shared macro drivers - Near-term adoption metrics for Chainlink oracle services in DeFi protocols through Q3-Q4 2026 - Cryptocurrency market correlation with traditional financial conditions and risk-asset sentiment between now and April 2026 - Trading volume disparity: Bitcoin contracts dominate market activity ($19.7k to $8.9k on top pairs) versus lower Chainlink engagement, potentially affecting price discovery accuracy - The 73% probability reflects a single contract leader, not a mean—downside scenarios at 66% and 34% show meaningful disagreement on directional certainty Contracts: - What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500 — 71¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 6%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000 — 67¢ Polymarket $6K (weight 17%) - What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↓ 6 — 53¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000 — 52¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 22%) - What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 16 — 40¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000 — 39¢ Polymarket $10K (weight 27%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000 — 30¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 12%) - What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 18 — 26¢ Polymarket $3 (weight 0%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-17T18:20:17.983Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "71% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-price-chainlink-hit-april Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20price%20will%20Chainlink%20hit%20in%20April%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%2012 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev