73% — What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 8
Leader: ↓ 50 at 73% · Polymarket 73% · 10 contracts · $13K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 08:43:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 83% probability reflects trader expectations that Hyperliquid will trade below $8 at some point during 2026. The high probability suggests most traders believe either the token will not reach or sustain higher price levels, or that bearish pressure will dominate through the year. Key drivers include Hyperliquid's current market valuation relative to $8, trading volume and adoption metrics on the platform, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions. The outcome will be determined by actual trading prices recorded on major exchanges throughout 2026, with volatility spikes—particularly around exchange listings, product announcements, or major crypto market moves—potentially the most significant near-term catalyst for repricing these contracts.

Key factors:
- Current Hyperliquid spot price relative to $8 threshold and recent trading range volatility
- Trading volume and active user growth on Hyperliquid platform versus competitor DEXs
- Correlation with Bitcoin and broader crypto market cycles, especially if BTC sustains above $40,000
- Liquidity depth and bid-ask spreads on major exchanges listing HLP, affecting price discovery
- Scheduled protocol upgrades, regulatory announcements, or major institutional adoption events in 2026

Contracts:
- What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 50 — 73¢ Polymarket $131 (weight 1%)
- What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 80 — 71¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 60%)
- What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 90 — 66¢ Polymarket $881 (weight 7%)
- What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 100 — 45¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 12%)
- What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 40 — 43¢ Polymarket $59 (weight 0%)
- What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 30 — 25¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 20 — 14¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 9%)
- What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 16 — 12¢ Polymarket $235 (weight 2%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "73% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-price-hyperliquid-hit
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20price%20will%20Hyperliquid%20hit%20in%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%93%208
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev