71% — What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 20
Leader: ↓ 60 at 71% · Polymarket 71% · 18 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 01:04:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 62% probability that Solana will trade below $20 by the end of 2026. The estimate reflects bearish sentiment relative to Solana's historical price levels, driven primarily by broader cryptocurrency market volatility and concerns about network adoption. Major factors influencing this probability include macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets, regulatory developments for cryptocurrencies, and Solana-specific metrics around transaction volume and developer activity. The resolution depends on Solana's year-end trading price, which will be determined by market conditions throughout 2026. Current trading volume across related crypto contracts suggests modest conviction, with significant price movement potential if key technical levels are breached or if major announcements affect institutional adoption of the network.

Key factors:
- Solana's current price relative to $20 threshold determines the minimum move required for the down-outcome to resolve
- Regulatory announcements or enforcement actions targeting major cryptocurrency exchanges or staking protocols could accelerate downward pressure
- Developer migration patterns and transaction throughput metrics will indicate whether network adoption trends support higher valuations
- Macroeconomic interest rate policy and risk-asset sentiment will disproportionately affect volatile cryptocurrency prices
- Historical volatility of Solana suggests significant price moves are feasible regardless of fundamental network developments

Contracts:
- What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 60 — 71¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 48%)
- What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 80 — 67¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 100 — 62¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 90 — 57¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 50 — 56¢ Polymarket $290 (weight 6%)
- What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 120 — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 40 — 38¢ Polymarket $410 (weight 9%)
- What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 140 — 29¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-17T00:20:48.503Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "71% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-price-solana-hit
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20price%20will%20Solana%20hit%20in%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%93%2020
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev