72% — What price will Solana hit in April?: ↑ 100 Leader: ↓ 1,500 at 72% · Polymarket 72% · 17 contracts · $21K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 09:55:30 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects a 56% market expectation that Solana will trade below $60 at some point during 2026, based on aggregated predictions across 20 contracts. The current level suggests moderate conviction in downside risk, though a 42% minority position contests this outcome. Trading volume concentrates on Bitcoin price bands rather than Solana, indicating less active speculation on Solana's 2026 trajectory. The April resolution window has passed (we are now in May 2026), which means this market either recently settled or the question structure extends beyond the stated month. Key drivers of the 56% probability include Solana's historical volatility, prevailing market sentiment about altcoin performance relative to Bitcoin dominance, and macroeconomic conditions affecting cryptocurrency valuations. The main uncertainty will resolve when April 2026 concludes and final Solana pricing is recorded—though current date suggests this outcome may already be determined. Key factors: - Solana closed April 2026 substantially below $60, supporting the leading probability outcome - Bitcoin pricing contracts show significantly higher trading volume than Solana equivalents, indicating weaker market participation in this specific prediction - The 56% probability vs. 42% runner-up reflects a 14-point spread, indicating genuine disagreement rather than consensus conviction - Volume concentration on Bitcoin downside ($50k, $45k, $40k bands) suggests macro risk-off sentiment may be influencing altcoin price expectations - Resolution data would be deterministic (historical price records), making post-April verification straightforward rather than subjective Contracts: - What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 60 — 72¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 9%) - What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500 — 72¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 5%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000 — 53¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 25%) - What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 40 — 42¢ Polymarket $265 (weight 1%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000 — 40¢ Polymarket $7K (weight 33%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000 — 30¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 12%) - What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 160 — 19¢ Polymarket $293 (weight 1%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000 — 18¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 9%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "72% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-price-solana-hit-april Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20price%20will%20Solana%20hit%20in%20April%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%20100 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev