3% — What price will Solana hit in May?: ↓ 80
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $31K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:46:38 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract reflects a 58% probability that Solana's price will close May 2026 below $80. The current market assessment suggests traders view a sub-$80 close as slightly more likely than a finish at or above that level. Price movements depend primarily on broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, Bitcoin's performance as a leading indicator, and any technical developments affecting Solana's network or ecosystem adoption. The outcome resolves automatically when May concludes, with the contract settling based on Solana's closing price on May 31, 2026. Until then, volatility in spot prices on major exchanges will continuously influence trader expectations embedded in this probability.

Key factors:
- Solana's price as of late May 2026 relative to the $80 threshold—current spot price on major exchanges like Coinbase or Kraken
- Bitcoin's price trajectory and overall cryptocurrency market capitalization trends, which typically correlate with altcoin performance
- Any protocol upgrades, validator issues, or network outages affecting Solana's technical reliability in May 2026
- Volume and liquidity on Solana trading pairs, as low liquidity can amplify price swings in either direction
- Regulatory announcements or institutional adoption developments that could shift risk appetite for altcoins during the period

Contracts:
- What price will Solana hit in May?: ↓ 70 — 3¢ Polymarket $31K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T21:20:07.688Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-price-solana-hit-may
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20price%20will%20Solana%20hit%20in%20May%3F%3A%20%E2%86%93%2080
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev