23% — What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?: >$115
Leader: $70-$80 at 23% · Polymarket 23% · 8 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:12 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract reflects a 23% probability that silver will close June futures above $115 per ounce. The current reading suggests traders view a sustained rally to that level as unlikely in the near term. Silver prices are primarily driven by industrial demand, USD strength, and real interest rates; a weakening dollar or spike in manufacturing activity could push prices higher, while stronger-than-expected inflation data tightening monetary policy would pressure downside. The June contract expiration itself—when futures settle to spot prices—is the key event determining the outcome. Until then, Fed policy signals and economic data throughout May will be primary drivers of directional moves.

Key factors:
- Silver settled below $90/oz in late April 2026; reaching >$115 requires a 28%+ rally in roughly 4 weeks
- USD weakness and lower real interest rates have historically been the strongest correlates of silver rallies above $110
- Polymarket volume on this contract is low ($934 in 24h vol), suggesting limited conviction and potential price inefficiency
- The >$115 contract trades at 5¢ while $100-$115 trades at 11¢, indicating steep odds decline in each price bracket
- June futures contracts expire mid-month, creating a hard settlement date with no extension; spot price at expiration is the sole determinant

Contracts:
- What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?: $70-$80 — 23¢ Polymarket $34 (weight 1%)
- What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?: $80-$90 — 22¢ Polymarket $309 (weight 10%)
- What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?: $60-$70 — 15¢ Polymarket $592 (weight 20%)
- What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?: $90-$100 — 14¢ Polymarket $35 (weight 1%)
- What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?: $100-$115 — 11¢ Polymarket $35 (weight 1%)
- What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?: >$115 — 9¢ Polymarket $205 (weight 7%)
- What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?: $50-$60 — 3¢ Polymarket $962 (weight 32%)
- What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?: <$50 — 3¢ Polymarket $831 (weight 28%)

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-silver-si-settle-june
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Silver%20(SI)%20settle%20at%20in%20June%3F%3A%20%3E%24115
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev