39% — What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $465
Leader: ↑ $450 at 39% · Polymarket 39% · 2 contracts · $6K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:13:11 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This question tracks whether Tesla's stock price will reach $465 or higher before the end of May 2026. The current 90% probability assigned to a downside outcome ($405) reflects market expectations that Tesla is unlikely to see significant upward movement in the near term. This is driven by two competing forces: the contract composition shows investors pricing in a roughly 49% chance of moderate downside ($390 range) versus smaller probabilities across multiple upside scenarios. The resolution depends on Tesla's actual stock performance over the remaining trading days in May, influenced by earnings reports, production data, macroeconomic conditions, and sector-specific developments. With May 2026 nearly complete, the primary catalyst is any unexpected company announcements or broader market shifts that could drive volatility before month-end.

Key factors:
- Tesla's stock price has not yet reached the $465 threshold, with only days remaining in May 2026 to do so
- The downside contract at $390 shows 49% support while the $465 upside contract shows only 12% support, indicating market skepticism about sustained upward momentum
- Trading volume is concentrated in lower-price-range contracts, suggesting more market conviction around moderate declines than sharp rallies
- External factors including macroeconomic conditions, interest rate environment, and sector performance will materially affect Tesla's price action in the remaining May trading days
- Any unexpected earnings surprises, guidance changes, or production announcements could create sudden volatility that affects whether the $465 level is touched

Contracts:
- What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $450 — 39¢ Polymarket $6K (weight 92%)
- What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $465 — 7¢ Polymarket $479 (weight 8%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.172Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-tesla-inc-tsla-hit-may
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Tesla%2C%20Inc.%20(TSLA)%20hit%20in%20May%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%20%24465
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev