30% — What will Trump say in May
Leader: Cat at 30% · Polymarket 30% · 20 contracts · $308 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-24 23:23:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market predicts whether former President Trump will say one of twenty specific phrases during May 2026. The leading outcome—quoted at 43%—indicates traders assign better-than-even odds against any single phrase occurring. The market's structure means resolution depends on Trump's exact statements captured in speeches, interviews, or public remarks during the month. Volume concentrates on outcomes like 'Nuke' (30¢) and 'Iwo Jima' (21¢), suggesting these phrases carry elevated perceived likelihood relative to outliers like 'Darth Vader' (4¢). Uncertainty stems from the inherent unpredictability of which specific phrase, if any, Trump articulates—and whether borderline phrasings satisfy resolution criteria. The month concludes May 31st, making late-month statements the final resolution catalyst.

Key factors:
- The leader at 43% reflects cumulative probability that none of the twenty phrases occur during May; resolution requires exact or substantially matching language
- Trading volume and price clustering around 'Nuke' (30¢) and 'Iwo Jima' (21¢) suggest these phrases have higher perceived likelihood than rare outliers like 'Darth Vader'
- Resolution depends on verifiable statements from speeches, interviews, or public remarks; ambiguous phrasings or paraphrases may dispute outcomes
- May 31st represents the hard deadline; statements made after that date fall outside scope regardless of prediction timing
- The 20-contract structure creates a zero-sum environment where any single phrase occurrence redirects all liquidity to that outcome's holder

Contracts:
- What will Trump say in May?: Cat — 30¢ Polymarket $37 (weight 12%)
- What will Trump say in May?: Iwo Jima — 24¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- What will Trump say in May?: America Last — 21¢ Polymarket $14 (weight 4%)
- What will Trump say in May?: Bunker — 20¢ Polymarket $6 (weight 2%)
- What will Trump say in May?: Bitcoin — 20¢ Polymarket $2 (weight 1%)
- What will Trump say in May?: Golden Dome — 19¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- What will Trump say in May?: Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer — 18¢ Polymarket $43 (weight 14%)
- What will Trump say in May?: Neville / Chamberlain — 18¢ Polymarket $1 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-24T23:20:07.033Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-trump-say-may
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Trump%20say%20in%20May
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev