39% — What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?: ↑ $120
Leader: $95.99 or below at 39% · Kalshi 39% · 2 contracts · $76K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:13:51 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the WTI front-month settle oil price  be <96.00 on May 8, 2026?: $95.99 or below — 39¢ Kalshi $49K (weight 65%)
- Will the WTI front-month settle oil price  be >108.99 on May 8, 2026?: $109 or above — 4¢ Kalshi $27K (weight 35%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-09T06:35:29.124Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20WTI%20Crude%20Oil%20(WTI)%20hit%20in%20April%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%20%24120
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev