81% — What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110 Leader: ↓ $90 at 81% · Polymarket 81% · 7 contracts · $712K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-25 00:32:29 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This market is asking whether WTI crude oil will reach $110 per barrel at any point during May 2026. Currently trading at 56% probability, the contract reflects expectations that prices are more likely to exceed this threshold than stay below it. The outcome depends on global supply-demand dynamics, OPEC+ production decisions, and geopolitical developments affecting oil exports. Upward pressure could come from supply disruptions, increased demand, or production cuts, while downward pressure would result from demand weakness or supply increases. The contract resolves when May concludes, making real-time price movements through the month the primary driver of final probability. The runner-up contract ($95 threshold at 47%) suggests markets expect volatility within a $95–$110 range, with moderate conviction that the higher level gets breached. Key factors: - WTI has been trading in the $70–$90 range historically; reaching $110 would require either a significant supply shock or sustained demand surge within the next month - OPEC+ production decisions and compliance rates directly influence supply; any announced cuts or disruptions to member production would increase the probability of hitting $110 - Geopolitical tensions affecting major producers (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) create tail risk for supply disruptions that could push prices sharply higher - The runner-up contract at $95 (47% probability) shows market consensus clusters around a $95–$110 band, indicating meaningful uncertainty between these two levels rather than strong directional conviction - May 2026 contract expires at month-end, so all price discovery occurs within 12 days from today; near-term news flow on supply, demand, or geopolitical events will drive rapid repricing Contracts: - What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $90 — 81¢ Polymarket $108K (weight 15%) - What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $85 — 46¢ Polymarket $75K (weight 11%) - What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $105 — 21¢ Polymarket $53K (weight 7%) - What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $80 — 17¢ Polymarket $94K (weight 13%) - What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110 — 12¢ Polymarket $210K (weight 29%) - What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $115 — 5¢ Polymarket $72K (weight 10%) - What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $120 — 4¢ Polymarket $100K (weight 14%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-25T00:20:12.910Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-may Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20WTI%20Crude%20Oil%20(WTI)%20hit%20in%20May%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%20%24110 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev