96% — When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair
Polymarket 96% · 1 contracts · $5K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:05:36 UTC

Why this matters:
Markets are currently pricing a 64% probability that Jerome Powell will depart as Fed Chair between May 15–22, 2026. This reflects trader expectations about the timing of his exit from the position, with the bulk of probability mass concentrated in this narrow window rather than spread across later dates. The high concentration in the May 15–22 contract, versus only 20% assigned to May 23–29 and minimal probability for June dates, suggests traders expect either an announcement or departure event within days. Key factors influencing this probability include scheduled Fed communications, economic data releases, and political developments that might trigger or confirm Powell's departure timeline. The outcome will be determined by official announcements from the Federal Reserve or White House regarding Powell's transition plans or actual departure from office.

Key factors:
- The 64% probability is concentrated in a specific 8-day window (May 15–22), indicating traders expect a near-term trigger or announcement rather than a later departure
- Trading volume is highest in the nearest-term contract ($22,105 24h volume), with dramatically lower volume in subsequent weekly windows, suggesting limited conviction about later outcomes
- Powell's current term runs until 2026, making spring 2026 a plausible timeframe for succession planning or transition announcements in typical presidential cycles
- Any official Fed communication, presidential statement, or Senate confirmation hearing regarding Fed leadership would directly resolve or shift probabilities
- The runner-up contract (May 23–29) captures only 20% probability, meaning markets assign roughly 80% odds that if departure occurs, it happens in the May 15–22 window or not at all during these early June weeks

Contracts:
- When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?: May 15–22 — 96¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-23T19:20:12.520Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev