61% — Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 3
Leader: 2 at 61% · Polymarket 61% · 4 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:02:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets currently estimate a 56% probability that 2026 will rank as the third-hottest year on record, with a 33% chance it ranks second. This reflects expectations based on current climate trends, ocean temperatures, and historical warming patterns. The probability would shift if near-term monthly temperature data diverges significantly from forecasts or if El Niño/La Niña conditions intensify or weaken unexpectedly. Annual temperature rankings are finalized by major climate agencies (NOAA, NASA, WMO) typically in January 2027, making this a medium-term resolved market. The current odds suggest significant uncertainty between ranking outcomes 1–3, with minimal probability assigned to rankings 4 or lower, indicating broad consensus that 2026 will be among the warmest years recorded.

Key factors:
- Global temperature data from January–April 2026 shows how 2026 tracks relative to 2023 (currently warmest on record) and 2024; sustained anomalies above or below expectations shift ranking probabilities
- Monthly NOAA and NASA temperature releases through December 2026 will be observed; sustained patterns diverging from historical trends would alter market expectations materially
- Oceanic heat content measurements and sea-surface temperatures are leading indicators; significant cooling or warming events (persistent La Niña vs. warm conditions) directly influence annual rankings
- El Niño/La Niña phase strength during 2026 affects global temperature; transitions between phases create upside or downside volatility for final rankings
- Official year-end temperature rankings from NOAA, NASA, and other agencies (released January 2027) will resolve the contract; methodology differences between agencies occasionally create minor ranking variations

Contracts:
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 2 — 61¢ Polymarket $135 (weight 2%)
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 1 — 29¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 87%)
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 4 — 5¢ Polymarket $346 (weight 4%)
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 6 or lower — 4¢ Polymarket $689 (weight 8%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T06:20:09.489Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "61% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/where-rank-among-hottest-years-record
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Where%20will%202026%20rank%20among%20the%20hottest%20years%20on%20record%3F%3A%203
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev