92% — Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May
Leader: Ariana Grande at 92% · Polymarket 92% · 8 contracts · $16K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 19:58:54 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market asks whether Ariana Grande will secure a #1 hit on the US Billboard Hot 100 chart during May 2026. The 87% probability reflects traders' assessment that she is highly likely to achieve this outcome. The elevated odds reflect her consistent chart performance history and any recent releases or promotional activity scheduled for the period. Key drivers include whether she has a new single or album in active promotion during May, the competitive strength of other charting artists, and overall streaming momentum. The resolution depends entirely on Billboard's official Hot 100 rankings released each week throughout May, with the final week determining whether she achieved the threshold. Market uncertainty could shift significantly if unexpected chart competitors emerge or if her promotional timeline changes.

Key factors:
- Whether Ariana Grande has an active single release or album promotion cycle scheduled for May 2026
- Historical chart performance data for Ariana Grande versus competing artists with realistic May 2026 release prospects
- Streaming volume and radio airplay metrics during May, which directly influence Billboard Hot 100 positioning
- Any new releases or surprise drops from rival artists that could displace potential #1 contenders from the top position
- Billboard's official Hot 100 chart rankings published weekly, with verification required from the final week of May

Contracts:
- Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Ariana Grande — 92¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 12%)
- Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Beyonce — 13¢ Polymarket $36 (weight 0%)
- Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Olivia Dean — 3¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 88%)
- Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Taylor Swift — 3¢ Polymarket $27 (weight 0%)
- Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Bad Bunny — 3¢ Polymarket $2 (weight 0%)
- Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Kanye West — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: The Weeknd — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Bruno Mars — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T19:20:09.652Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-artists-have-1-hits-us-may
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20artists%20will%20have%20%231%20hits%20in%20the%20US%20in%20May
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev