46% — Which banks will fail by end of 2026
Leader: BMO at 46% · Polymarket 46% · 19 contracts · $10 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:44 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability estimates the likelihood that at least one major bank will fail by December 31, 2026. The 8% level reflects relatively low near-term systemic risk, though higher than 2024-2025 baseline expectations. Markets are pricing in moderate concern around interest-rate volatility, deposit stability, and asset quality deterioration as key drivers. Investor attention centers on Truist (priced at 28¢ across contracts), suggesting concentrated concern about a specific institution rather than broad-based banking sector collapse. The resolution hinges on official regulatory determinations or formal FDIC intervention by year-end. Key uncertainty factors include Q2-Q3 2026 earnings seasons, which will reveal loan loss provisions and net interest margin pressure, and any macroeconomic shocks affecting credit quality or liquidity conditions.

Key factors:
- Truist commands 28¢ pricing versus 3-5¢ for other major banks, indicating market focus on a single institution rather than systemic risk
- Interest-rate environment through mid-2026 will materially affect net interest margins and deposit flight risk for regional and mid-cap banks
- Corporate and commercial real estate loan performance data in Q2-Q3 2026 earnings will signal asset-quality deterioration or stability
- Regulatory capital ratios and stress-test results (if conducted) provide objective thresholds for intervention decisions
- No scheduled major regulatory event or stress test is formally planned for 2026, making resolution dependent on deterioration triggers rather than scheduled reviews

Contracts:
- Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: BMO — 46¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: Truist — 33¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: Scotiabank — 21¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: KeyBank — 18¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 100%)
- Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: UBS — 10¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: US Bank — 8¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: Santander — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which banks will fail by end of 2026?: BNY — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 11 more

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-banks-fail
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev