90% — Which bills will become law in 2026?: FISA Section 702 reauthorization
Leader: Housing for the 21st Century Act at 90% · Polymarket 90% · 14 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:30:45 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The prediction market assigns a 60% probability that the FISA Section 702 reauthorization will become law sometime in 2026. This reflects expectations about whether Congress will extend this surveillance authority, which periodically requires legislative renewal. The probability is driven by divided political incentives: security advocates and intelligence agencies typically support reauthorization, while privacy advocates and some lawmakers oppose warrantless surveillance provisions. The primary factor affecting this outcome is whether Congress prioritizes the renewal before December 2026 and whether compromise language satisfies enough members across both parties. The timeline matters significantly—delays could push the vote into the final weeks of the session, making passage less certain. Upcoming Congressional scheduling decisions and any intelligence community pressure or privacy-focused legislative proposals will materially influence whether this becomes law.

Key factors:
- Historical reauthorization pattern: Section 702 has been renewed before previous expirations (2017, 2020), suggesting a baseline expectation of passage, though with increasing political friction each renewal cycle
- Current Congressional composition and leadership stance on surveillance reform: Republican and Democratic floor leaders' positions on either advancing or modifying the language will determine whether a clean reauthorization reaches a vote
- Competing legislative priorities in 2026: If Congress faces competing deadlines (spending bills, election-year measures), surveillance reauthorization could be deprioritized or bundled into omnibus legislation that changes its passage dynamics
- Activist and civil liberties mobilization: Recent years have seen growing organized opposition to 702 from privacy groups, which could increase the difficulty of assembling a majority, particularly among younger lawmakers
- Intelligence agency pressure and any disclosed surveillance abuses: Real or alleged incidents involving the authority could shift the political calculation either direction depending on nature and timing of disclosure

Contracts:
- Which bills will become law in 2026?: Housing for the 21st Century Act — 90¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which bills will become law in 2026?: DEFIANCE Act — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which bills will become law in 2026?: Credit-card routing competition — 47¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 1%)
- Which bills will become law in 2026?: FISA Section 702 reauthorization — 40¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 93%)
- Which bills will become law in 2026?: SHOWER Act — 39¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which bills will become law in 2026?: AI-chip export licensing — 39¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which bills will become law in 2026?: Critical-minerals stockpile — 37¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which bills will become law in 2026?: Export-control chip security — 33¢ Polymarket $49 (weight 4%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-bills-become-law
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20bills%20will%20become%20law%20in%202026%3F%3A%20FISA%20Section%20702%20reauthorization
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev