87% — Which characters will appear in Avengers
Leader: Doomsday?: Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool at 87% · Polymarket 87% · 19 contracts · $215 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:08:46 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that at least one major character will appear in Avengers: Doomsday, the upcoming MCU film. The 90% level suggests traders view character appearances as highly likely, given Marvel's typical roster strategy for ensemble films. The primary driver is Marvel Studios' established pattern of featuring multiple established heroes in Avengers events. What would move this probability: official cast announcements from Marvel, trailer releases showing specific characters, or director/studio statements about the film's scope. The biggest resolution catalyst is the film's theatrical release and any official cast reveals in trailers or press materials before then. Current market data shows varied confidence across individual characters—Doctor Strange trades at 80% while Spider-Man variants range from 25% to 64%—suggesting uncertainty about which specific heroes will participate rather than doubt about the film featuring recognizable characters overall.

Key factors:
- Tom Holland Spider-Man contract trades at 64¢ while Andrew Garfield Spider-Man trades at 25¢, indicating market assigns much higher probability to MCU continuity appearance than multiverse inclusion
- Benedict Cumberbatch Doctor Strange has the highest individual character probability at 80¢, suggesting traders expect established Avengers to return
- Jonathan Majors/Kang contract trades at only 17¢ despite being the stated villain, potentially reflecting casting uncertainty or narrative direction doubts
- The 90% leader probability significantly exceeds all individual character probabilities, indicating markets expect multiple characters but disagree on which specific ones
- 24-hour volume concentrates on Spider-Man and Doctor Strange contracts, suggesting these are primary focal points for trader conviction changes

Contracts:
- Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool — 87¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange — 85¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Benedict Wong as Wong — 82¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel — 81¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man — 77¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau — 75¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts — 74¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: Hugh Jackman as Wolverine — 72¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 11 more

Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-characters-appear-avengers
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20characters%20will%20appear%20in%20Avengers
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev