38% — Which cities will Russia enter by December 31
Leader: Dopropillia at 38% · Polymarket 38% · 8 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 15:34:51 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Russia will capture at least one of eight specified Ukrainian cities by year-end 2026. The 36% probability for Dopropillia as the leading outcome suggests traders view territorial gains as plausible but not the base case. Market prices vary significantly across cities—Sloviansk and Kramatorsk trade at 22 cents each, indicating moderate expected exposure, while Sumy and Zaporizhia are priced much lower at 9 cents. The current distribution reflects assessments of Russian military capability, Ukrainian defensive capacity, and the pace of ongoing operations. Key drivers include frontline dynamics in eastern Ukraine, available Russian forces for offensive operations, and logistics constraints. Resolution depends entirely on confirmed Russian control of these cities, which would be established through territorial administrative changes or military occupations recognized by relevant sources before December 31, 2026.

Key factors:
- Current Russian frontline positions relative to each city and distance-to-advance required
- Availability of Russian reserves and operational tempo compared to 2025-2026 baseline
- Ukrainian defensive capacity, counteroffensive capability, and Western military support levels
- Historical pace of Russian territorial acquisition in similar operational phases (meters/weeks)
- International recognition thresholds for what constitutes 'entering' or controlling a city

Contracts:
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Dopropillia — 38¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Druzkhivka — 34¢ Polymarket $50 (weight 3%)
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Sloviansk — 21¢ Polymarket $27 (weight 2%)
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Kramatorsk — 15¢ Polymarket $500 (weight 32%)
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Kherson — 10¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Zaporizhia — 9¢ Polymarket $61 (weight 4%)
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Sumy — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?: Kharkiv — 6¢ Polymarket $935 (weight 59%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-cities-russia-enter-december-31
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev