58% — Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31
Leader: Google at 58% · Polymarket 58% · 14 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:40:21 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Google will be recognized as having the #1 AI model by year-end 2026. The 80% probability significantly favors Google over competitors like OpenAI (24%), with margins driven by Google's existing model portfolio, computational resources, and recent research output. Market pricing suggests confidence in Google's continued leadership, though this assumes the definition of "#1" remains consistent with current industry benchmarks. Key catalysts include major model releases from competitors, performance evaluations on standardized benchmarks, and whether new capabilities in reasoning, multimodality, or domain-specific tasks shift market perception of which model leads. The seven-month timeframe allows for meaningful technical advances that could alter current rankings.

Key factors:
- Google's Gemini series current performance on published benchmarks (MMLU, coding, reasoning tasks) compared to GPT-4, Claude, and other major releases
- Timeline and capabilities of OpenAI's next major model release relative to Google's planned updates
- Definition and measurement criteria for "#1 model" (whether based on benchmarks, adoption, or institutional preference)
- Computational and training scale differences between competitors' latest model releases
- Publicly announced model launches or capability claims from Alibaba, Meta, Baidu, or Microsoft between now and December 31

Contracts:
- Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Google — 58¢ Polymarket $975 (weight 34%)
- Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: OpenAI — 36¢ Polymarket $444 (weight 15%)
- Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: xAI — 22¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Meta — 16¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: DeepSeek — 10¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Microsoft — 9¢ Polymarket $953 (weight 33%)
- Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Alibaba — 9¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Baidu — 9¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.361Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "58% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-companies-have-1-ai-model-december-31
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20companies%20will%20have%20a%20%231%20AI%20model%20by%20December%2031
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev