8% — Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30
Polymarket 8% · 1 contracts · $310 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:36 UTC

Why this matters:
This market is pricing a 17% probability that OpenAI will be recognized as having the #1 AI model by June 30, 2026. However, market data shows significant disagreement: Anthropic's contract for best AI model trades at 68 cents, while OpenAI's identical contract trades at just 6 cents, suggesting the question definition or timeline may be creating divergent valuations. The key driver of current pricing appears to be recent model releases and benchmark performance—traders are weighing whether OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or other competitors will achieve clear technical leadership in the next 8 weeks. Major model announcements, benchmark results, and real-world performance metrics in enterprise or research contexts would likely shift these probabilities significantly. The resolution will depend critically on how "#1 AI model" is defined and measured at month-end.

Key factors:
- Massive discrepancy between Anthropic's 68¢ price and OpenAI's 6¢ for ostensibly the same question suggests contract terms, timeframes, or success criteria differ materially between markets
- OpenAI has been incrementally releasing model improvements rather than major breakthroughs recently, while Anthropic has emphasized constitutional AI development
- Google commands 23¢ pricing, indicating meaningful probability three-way competition exists among the top three AI labs
- Current 17% price reflects OpenAI as statistical favorite but far from consensus—runner-up sits at 16%, indicating high uncertainty and fragmented market expectations
- Resolution depends on how "#1 model" is operationalized (benchmark leaderboards, enterprise adoption, research community consensus, or subjective expert panels)—definitional clarity would likely trigger repricing

Contracts:
- Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?: OpenAI — 8¢ Polymarket $310 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:10.933Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-companies-have-1-ai-model-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20companies%20will%20have%20a%20%231%20AI%20model%20by%20June%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev