80% — Which companies will the US take a stake in
Leader: Rigetti at 80% · Polymarket 80% · 18 contracts · $134 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:11 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the aggregate forecast that OpenAI will receive a direct equity stake from the U.S. federal government by a specified date. The 51% probability suggests near-parity between outcomes where the government does and does not take such a stake. The outcome depends primarily on policy shifts within the executive or legislative branches regarding critical technology companies, alongside broader industrial policy trends around semiconductor and AI capabilities. The resolution will likely be driven by official government announcements, regulatory filings, or legislative action—moments that carry binary clarity. Secondary outcomes like stakes in Palantir, Spirit Airlines, Nvidia, GlobalFoundries, or Lockheed Martin show fragmented conviction across multiple sectors, with defense and advanced technology as focal areas.

Key factors:
- Executive branch policy direction on AI and technology sector equity stakes following 2024-2026 policy statements
- Congressional legislative action or appropriations specifically authorizing federal equity stakes in private companies
- Official government announcements regarding capital deployment in OpenAI, Palantir, or competing technology firms
- Market pricing of OpenAI at 51% versus runner-up at 45% indicates close competition but no consensus outcome
- Absence of prior precedent for large-scale direct equity stakes by U.S. federal government in major tech companies outside defense/aerospace sectors

Contracts:
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Rigetti — 80¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?: D-Wave — 76¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?: OpenAI — 66¢ Polymarket $6 (weight 5%)
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?: IonQ — 59¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Micron — 57¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Anduril — 56¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?: GlobalFoundries — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Eli Lilly — 49¢ Polymarket $9 (weight 6%)
- ... and 10 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:07.443Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "80% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-companies-us-take-stake
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20companies%20will%20the%20US%20take%20a%20stake%20in
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev