32% — Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Kalshi 32% · 5 contracts · $110 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 02:49:10 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the odds that a single AI company will hold the #1 ranked model by end of April 2026. The 36% probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about market leadership, with roughly two-to-one odds against any single dominant player. Several factors drive this assessment: the rapid iteration cycle of AI model releases means rankings can shift within weeks, and multiple companies (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, xAI) are actively improving their offerings. The benchmark for 'best' model—whether measured by coding performance, general reasoning, or safety—remains contested across evaluation frameworks. Key catalysts include scheduled model announcements, benchmark releases (like standardized coding competitions), and performance leaderboard updates. A 36% reading indicates near-parity among top contenders, meaning current market leaders could either solidify dominance through decisive improvements or lose ground if competitors achieve breakthroughs.

Key factors:
- Anthropic currently prices at 58¢ in December coding-model contracts, suggesting 58% of market participants expect them to lead on that specific metric by year-end
- OpenAI trades at 33¢ for the same December coding benchmark, indicating roughly one-third confidence they'll retain their position
- Benchmark evaluation standards (LeetCode, HumanEval, real-world coding tasks) directly determine rankings and can shift with methodology changes
- Model release velocity—each major company releases updated versions every 4-12 weeks—creates high volatility in short-term rankings
- End-of-April timing is mid-cycle for most companies' development, meaning Q2 product announcements and competitive responses will be primary drivers

Contracts:
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic — 58¢ Kalshi $110 (weight 100%)
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?: United States — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T02:20:50.613Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev