33% — Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Kalshi 36% · Polymarket 31% · 16 contracts · $46K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 09:28:03 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 5pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Which company has best AI model end of June?: Anthropic — 86¢ Polymarket $19K (weight 41%)
- Which company has best AI model end of June?: OpenAI — 4¢ Polymarket $10K (weight 23%)
- Which company has best AI model end of June?: Google — 10¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 18%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic — 61¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI — 30¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 4%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 3%)
- Which company has second best AI model end of June?: Anthropic — 68¢ Polymarket $900 (weight 2%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google — 5¢ Kalshi $451 (weight 1%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T09:20:11.405Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev