33% — Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On) Kalshi 36% · Polymarket 31% · 16 contracts · $46K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:09 UTC Cross-venue gap: 5pp (Kalshi higher) Why this matters: This market estimates a 32% probability that a specific company (other than OpenAI or Anthropic) holds the #3 ranked AI model by end of April 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about which organization will secure third place in a competitive landscape where OpenAI and Anthropic currently dominate public benchmarks. Market participants are weighing whether established players like Google, or emerging competitors like xAI, can develop models that rank third by that date. Upward pressure would come from new model releases or benchmark results showing stronger performance from challengers; downward pressure would result from dominant incumbents maintaining their lead or consolidating positions. Resolution depends on how major AI labs rank their models against each other using standard evaluation metrics by the specified deadline. Key factors: - OpenAI and Anthropic currently price significantly higher (combined ~$1.10) than any third-place contender on the June benchmark contracts, suggesting market confidence in their continued dominance - Google maintains 12¢ pricing for best model at end of June, indicating structural doubt about its ability to challenge the top two despite existing AI capabilities - xAI's 4¢ price on the coding-specific contract (December 2026) shows investors assign low probability to emergence of viable competitors from newer entrants within the timeframe - Kalshi contracts price 3 percentage points higher than Polymarket, suggesting different analytical weightings of third-place probability across venues - No imminent scheduled model releases or benchmark events are mentioned in the contract list, indicating uncertainty driven by general competitive dynamics rather than near-term catalysts Contracts: - Which company has best AI model end of June?: Anthropic — 85¢ Polymarket $16K (weight 34%) - Which company has best AI model end of June?: OpenAI — 4¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 28%) - Which company has best AI model end of June?: Google — 10¢ Polymarket $10K (weight 21%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI — 30¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 4%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 3%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic — 60¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 3%) - Which company has second best AI model end of June?: Anthropic — 68¢ Polymarket $973 (weight 2%) - Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Anthropic — 86¢ Polymarket $596 (weight 1%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:10.019Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-company-has-3-ai-model-april Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20company%20has%20the%20%233%20AI%20model%20end%20of%20April%3F%20(Style%20Control%20On) Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev