22% — Which company has the best AI model end of April Kalshi 22% · 5 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-07 15:31:41 UTC Why this matters: This 22% probability reflects market expectations that Google will be identified as having the best AI model by end of April 2026. The assessment is primarily shaped by the coding model category, where market participants are pricing Anthropic (57¢) as the current front-runner, with OpenAI (35¢) as a strong competitor. The probability would increase if Google demonstrates significant coding performance improvements or releases a model that outperforms competitors on established benchmarks. It would decrease if rival companies release notably superior models or achieve better results on standardized coding tasks. The main resolution event is the scheduled assessment at April 30, 2026, when models will be evaluated against performance metrics. The market is currently divided on leadership, with no single company commanding overwhelming confidence, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about technical capabilities across competitors over the next ten months. Key factors: - Anthropic currently prices significantly higher (57¢) than Google (5¢) in the direct coding model comparison, indicating market belief in Anthropic's technical lead - OpenAI holds 35¢ of the coding model contract, establishing three-way competition where no player has dominant consensus confidence - Google's 5¢ pricing on its own coding model contract contrasts with its 22¢ overall average, suggesting the market views Google as less likely to lead specifically in coding versus other AI categories - The deadline is April 30, 2026, making this a 10-month forecast window during which multiple new model releases and benchmark publications could substantially shift probabilities - Trading volume concentration on Anthropic (57¢ contract, $916 24h volume) versus Google's contract ($2576 24h volume) suggests disagreement about evaluation criteria or timeline Contracts: - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI — 21¢ Kalshi $435 (weight 42%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI — 6¢ Kalshi $335 (weight 32%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic — 66¢ Kalshi $256 (weight 25%) - Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Netflix — 10¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 1%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-07T15:20:51.741Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-company-has-best-ai-model-april Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20company%20has%20the%20best%20AI%20model%20end%20of%20April Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev