18% — Which company has the best Coding AI model end of April Kalshi 18% · 7 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-29 05:00:39 UTC Why this matters: This probability estimates the likelihood that a single company will be recognized as having the best coding-focused AI model by end of April 2026. The 29% aggregate probability reflects significant disagreement between venues: Polymarket traders price this at 37% while Kalshi traders assess it at 20%, suggesting uncertainty about how "best" will be measured and which company will deliver the strongest coding capabilities. Movement in this probability would depend on new model releases, published benchmark results on coding tasks, and how industry evaluators weight different performance metrics like code generation accuracy, execution correctness, and efficiency. The key catalyst is the accumulation of real-world performance data and formal evaluations released in the coming months, which would narrow the gap between optimistic and skeptical assessments of where coding AI leadership stands. Key factors: - Polymarket prices coding AI leadership 17 percentage points higher than Kalshi, indicating disagreement about evaluation criteria and technical capabilities - Anthropic contracts on Polymarket price its models at 85-91% for general AI leadership by June, suggesting market expectation of strong performance extending to specialized domains like coding - OpenAI contracts trade at only 3% despite historical dominance in AI model releases, indicating market skepticism about its coding capabilities relative to competitors or uncertainty about release timing - The gap between general AI model leadership (Anthropic 85%) and coding-specific leadership (29% aggregated) suggests traders view coding as a more contested or uncertain domain - High 24-hour trading volumes on Anthropic and OpenAI contracts indicate active information discovery, with material probability shifts possible as new benchmarks or model announcements surface Contracts: - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic — 56¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 79%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI — 32¢ Kalshi $211 (weight 16%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google — 3¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 3%) - Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Amazon — 10¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 2%) - Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Disney — 10¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 1%) - Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Netflix — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-29T04:20:49.814Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-company-has-best-coding-ai-model-april Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20company%20has%20the%20best%20Coding%20AI%20model%20end%20of%20April Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev