18% — Which company has the best Math AI model end of April Kalshi 18% · 7 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-29 05:01:25 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 27% probability that a specific company will be recognized as having the best mathematical AI model by end of April 2026. The estimate reflects significant disagreement between Polymarket (33%) and Kalshi (19%), suggesting uncertainty about both evaluation criteria and which company's model will perform strongest. The probability would likely increase if a particular company releases a math-specialized model with strong benchmark results, or decrease if competitors release superior alternatives. The main driver of current uncertainty appears to be the lack of standardized benchmarks for comparing mathematical reasoning capabilities across models—different evaluation methodologies could substantially shift assessments. The probability should resolve when industry benchmarks, academic comparisons, or formal evaluations of mathematical AI capabilities are published or become widely recognized as definitive. Key factors: - Polymarket contracts price Anthropic at 92% for best model by end of June, suggesting market confidence, though the April deadline makes this comparison speculative - The 14-percentage-point gap between Polymarket and Kalshi indicates meaningful disagreement on how to evaluate 'best,' potentially reflecting different interpretations of mathematical reasoning benchmarks - Trading volume concentrates on the June endpoint ($39,340 on leading contracts) rather than April, suggesting limited information or consensus around the earlier deadline - No scheduled major math AI benchmark release or standardized evaluation date has been publicly announced that would definitively resolve what 'best' means - Current odds heavily discount OpenAI (3-4¢) and Google (6¢) despite their ongoing AI development, reflecting market expectations about relative mathematical capabilities Contracts: - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic — 56¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 79%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI — 32¢ Kalshi $211 (weight 16%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google — 3¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 3%) - Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Amazon — 10¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 2%) - Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Disney — 10¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 1%) - Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Netflix — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-29T04:20:50.990Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-company-has-best-math-ai-model-april Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20company%20has%20the%20best%20Math%20AI%20model%20end%20of%20April Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev