86% — Which company has the best Math AI model end of May
Leader: Google at 86% · Polymarket 86% · 2 contracts · $124K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 22:19:13 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?: Google — 86¢ Polymarket $40K (weight 32%)
- Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?: Anthropic — 11¢ Polymarket $84K (weight 68%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T21:20:11.064Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-company-has-best-math-ai-model-may
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20company%20has%20the%20best%20Math%20AI%20model%20end%20of%20May
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev