18% — Which company has the second best Coding AI model end of April
Kalshi 18% · 7 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 05:00:39 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that a specific company will hold the second-place position in coding AI model performance by late April 2026. The current 26% estimate sits between Kalshi's 20% and Polymarket's 30%, suggesting meaningful disagreement about which company ranks second. The main drivers of this probability are the recent release cycles of major AI models—particularly Claude, GPT-4, and Gemini variants—and benchmark performance on coding-specific tasks like competitive programming and bug-fix evaluation. Market participants are pricing in both known model capabilities and expectations for upcoming releases over the next few months. The key uncertainty centers on whether performance rankings will shift based on new model versions or architectural improvements, with December 2026 contracts showing stronger confidence in Anthropic's coding position long-term but near-term second place remaining contested.

Key factors:
- Recent coding benchmarks (HumanEval, MBPP, LeetCode performance) and their publication dates determine perceived model rankings
- Release timing of new model versions from competing companies and whether new versions shift second-place rankings
- Definition and methodology of what constitutes 'best' and 'second-best'—different benchmarks and evaluation criteria produce different rankings
- Volume and depth of trading activity differs between venues (Kalshi 7 contracts vs Polymarket 10), potentially reflecting different underlying trader conviction levels
- Historical pattern of model performance shifts: how often does the second-place company change between quarterly model releases

Contracts:
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic — 56¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 79%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI — 32¢ Kalshi $211 (weight 16%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google — 3¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 3%)
- Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Amazon — 10¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 2%)
- Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Disney — 10¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 1%)
- Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Netflix — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T04:20:50.906Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-company-has-second-best-coding-ai-model-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20company%20has%20the%20second%20best%20Coding%20AI%20model%20end%20of%20April
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev