18% — Which company has the second best Math AI model end of April
Kalshi 18% · 7 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 04:00:38 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 19% chance that the second-best math AI model globally will be developed by one of the major AI companies by end of April 2026. The relatively modest probability reflects uncertainty about how to rank mathematical reasoning capabilities across different systems and which companies will release competitive models in this specific domain. The market is influenced by recent performance benchmarks on mathematical reasoning tasks and companies' stated roadmaps for releasing new models. A key catalyst for resolution would be publication of standardized benchmarks comparing mathematical reasoning capabilities across leading AI systems, which typically occur when companies release new model versions or independent evaluation organizations publish comparative assessments.

Key factors:
- Performance on established math benchmarks (AIME, IMO-level problems, formal reasoning tasks) across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and other leading labs as of April 2026
- Release timing and public availability of new model versions from major AI companies—whether capability improvements are rolled out before the resolution date
- Definition and methodology for ranking models as 'second-best' mathematically—benchmarks used, weighting of different mathematical reasoning categories, and whether evaluation is based on public claims or independent testing
- Market participants' beliefs about how quickly mathematical reasoning capabilities are advancing across competing organizations
- Historical correlation between coding model performance (where Anthropic currently leads at 58%) and mathematical reasoning capabilities, given overlap in required computational thinking skills

Contracts:
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic — 56¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 82%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI — 32¢ Kalshi $211 (weight 8%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google — 3¢ Kalshi $209 (weight 8%)
- Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Amazon — 10¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 1%)
- Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Disney — 10¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 0%)
- Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Netflix — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T03:20:48.985Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev