18% — Which company has the third best AI model end of April
Kalshi 18% · 7 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 02:45:34 UTC

Why this matters:
This 25% probability represents the estimated chance that a specific company ranks third in AI model capability as of end of April 2026. The slight divergence between trading venues (22% on Kalshi vs. 27% on Polymarket) suggests uncertainty about which companies will occupy the top positions and how to define third place. The probability reflects that leadership in AI capabilities remains contested and frequently reshuffled. Key drivers include continued model releases from major players, benchmark performance data, and how evaluators measure "best" across different use cases. The interpretation depends heavily on whether third place refers to general-purpose models, specialized domains like coding, or overall market perception.

Key factors:
- No clear consensus exists on ranking methodology—definitions vary between coding ability, general reasoning, multimodal performance, or broader commercial adoption
- Recent model releases and benchmark results from Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI significantly influence rankings, with coding-specific metrics showing different hierarchies than general benchmarks
- The substantial volume and price movement in June-dated contracts (Anthropic at 64¢ vs. Google at 26¢) indicates market focus on near-term model releases rather than April positions
- Trading volume concentrates on June endpoints rather than April, suggesting April rankings carry less predictive interest or have lower resolution clarity
- Cross-venue gap of 5 percentage points indicates legitimate disagreement about third-place likelihood rather than information asymmetry

Contracts:
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic — 56¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 82%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI — 32¢ Kalshi $211 (weight 8%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google — 3¢ Kalshi $209 (weight 8%)
- Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Amazon — 10¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 1%)
- Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Disney — 10¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 0%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Netflix — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T02:20:50.940Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-company-has-third-best-ai-model-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20company%20has%20the%20third%20best%20AI%20model%20end%20of%20April
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev