26% — Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?: UAE
Polymarket 26% · 13 contracts · $748 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:34:13 UTC

Contracts:
- How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 10 — 16¢ Polymarket $568 (weight 76%)
- Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Germany — 56¢ Polymarket $64 (weight 9%)
- How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 8 — 29¢ Polymarket $50 (weight 7%)
- How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 9 — 27¢ Polymarket $26 (weight 3%)
- Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Turkey — 94¢ Polymarket $20 (weight 3%)
- Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Japan — 38¢ Polymarket $12 (weight 2%)
- Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Ukraine — 18¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 1%)
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: European Union — 10¢ Polymarket $3 (weight 0%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:08.977Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-countries-conduct-military-action-against-iran-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20countries%20will%20conduct%20military%20action%20against%20Iran%20by%20April%2030%3F%3A%20UAE
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev